Inflation in Kazakhstan may reach 14% in 2022: expert outlook

The Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) has published the results of its latest survey of professional participants in the financial market regarding certain indicators in April 2022.

“Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, increased volatility in global markets, and the global withdrawal of investors from emerging market assets amid the tightening of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, expert expectations for the national currency remain moderately negative,” the report states.

With rising inflation in the country (up to 12.0% in March) and in major trading partner countries, the average estimate of inflation expected in a year has increased to 9.4% (from 8.3% previously). Implementation of the announced anti-inflation measures could return inflation to the projected range of 8–10% within a year.

Accelerating global inflation, disruptions in energy supply chains, and higher interest rates could slow economic growth in 2022.

According to Fitch, global economic growth will be 3.5%, compared to the previous forecast of 4.2%. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast, within the updated Social and Economic Development Forecast for 2022, has also been lowered to 2.1% from 3.9%. Against this backdrop, expert expectations for the country’s GDP growth in a year have decreased to 3.1% from 3.4% earlier.

Source: Kapital.kz

Since 2012, PKF Valuation of Property has been cooperating with the analytical agency EIU and using its data to build financial models and forecast business development for its clients.

As of April 2022, the inflation forecast for the current year is 14%, and the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar is expected to be 447.4 KZT.

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